MDA - Market Direction Analysis

[MechanicalMethod]

Bollinger bands are an area I'm weak in. I've never given them much of a look until I was exposed to talk of them on this thread earlier. I haven't done the work yet but I have a lot of notes that I'm thankful for.

suppose a system is consistently evenly split over 50% wins and 50% loses. If the sample period is large enough and includes the types of price action (trend, chop, sloping chop) then to me it's 100% certain that it will continue to be the same under the same conditions. One argument against that would be that the future won't be the same as the past but it's my opinion that rigorious testing combined with a deep understanding of what types of price movement will cause it to fail or succeed ... that's a good enough reason for me to believe that it will continue to perform the same in the future. And if the future is different then by knowing how the system changes when the market chops more than it did during testing will immediately make it apparent that the expected results need to be adjusted acordingly to acount for the proportion of chop to trend.