Replies to post #2057 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[OakesCS]

i have doubts that al-Husseini actually said what Forbes claims. i'd bet there is some sloppiness or lack of understanding in the use of the word "reserves". It's plausible (although still very unlikely) that aramco could be off by 40% on projected resources (probable or potential reserves) across the entire country but their proven reserves are a very tightly guarded secret and it's extremely unlikely that they are off by 40%. Much of Saudi has not been explored or only lightly explored and there are several large but untouched reservoirs. That article looks more like a YMB post than serious journalism.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proven_reserves

[linhdtu]

It is actually a very well known fact. If I knew it and I have known it for a long time then it is no biggie :)

OTOH, it does make sense that SA would behave that way. Because it does get to keep its position of top dog.

From its own vantage, SA wants spot price to be high but not high enough to curb demand. Being the biggest producer with the largest reserves allows it the power to say ,whenever the spot gets too high , it is going to increase production to bring spot back down.

That little tyrant in Venezuela whose name escapes me just now, does not have that power. I am sure he would want it though :)

Another story I read about SA manipulating spot price was that back in 86,87 with the urge of the US under Reagan, SA opened its spigot and spot hit the teens. It basically bankrupted the Soviet Union as it hit them where it hurt the most since oil export revenues was the back bone of an horrible inefficient communist regime. It was not a chance event that the Soviet Empire imploded a couple years later.

Sure it sounded like an after the facts conspiracy tale to me but I like it because it sorta makes sense to me :)