Replies to post #6322 on FinancialAdvisor's College Class (FACC)

[FinancialAdvisor]

*Hi sk, I don't think it's much of a surprise that I'm extremely bullish on $GOLD long-term. Short-term, I'm trying to be more aware of the fluctuations and I'm aware that we're at a very pivotal point here in the early part of April. Like I said, I'm exceptionally bullish on $GOLD and have been posting about it since I made this board. There's always the other side of the trade, it doesn't bother me, I enjoy the discussions, heck even Elliot Wave is against $GOLD, they're siding with paper cash... doesn't bother me, I just KNOW long-term the winners will be with $GOLD... and I'm extremely confident taking the debt-free side of the market here.

Moving on... the markets... I think this is a false rally because I really don't see any catalysts and I'm not particularly fond of the volume here either, nor do I believe the markets ever achieved capitulation to call this rally "legitimate," until it proves me wrong, it's nothing more then a bounce to me. Another chance for insiders to cash out on shares and options, and for market makers and specialists to load up on shorts... that's my take!...

[AnderL]

squ1d, There are several reasons I put up my bearish posts here

One is to provide a contrarian view to an overly bullish thread on gold. I've heard that there was supposed to be an unbiased view but I do not see it so I question the validity of those points. Bias can appear in all shapes and forms. Even a subtle play of words can expose ones bias. Something as simple as saying "this need support here" or as opposed to saying” looks like there is risk of breaking support here". Ignoring technical indicators on expected bottoms to support ones own view. It's how we are. No one can be truly unbiased, prejudices appear as early as a year old when a child chooses to like or dislike a particular food, or their parents over other people. you can't get away from it but you ca fight it. To state one has an agenda means a total disregard of being fair and unobjectionable

Second is that there is as much misleading information in the Gold bug articles as there is on CNBC. I've read through many of the articles on some of these gold bug sites and I see them as really grasping at straws. Everyone remember the articles regarding the US Dollar and gold going up at the same time. Odd that the timing of the article correlates to a reversal signal on the USD.

Third I know the upside probability of Gold in this market. I know the events that need to transpire for Gold to break higher than $450, both technically and economically. People are allocating their assets both toward that direction and against it. My speculation as to Gold moving to the upside requires 3 event to take place as follow.

Long Term Upside requires
1. A Fed Rate hike to 3.0% that does not break the Target Rate over the Zero Line. AND
2. Interest rates across the board to fall ahead of a rising Fed rate. Meaning inflation is become stagnant. AND
3. The Fed to continue to pause rates or return to dropping them to protect against a recession.

Short Term is all technical. To maintain support on the inflation bull trendline (the symmetrical triangle pattern). A breakdown of that trendline positions gold to create a Falling Wedge or Flag. Either pattern can cause a reversal of that Short Term trend and renew the advance of the Long term events take place, or create a bounce amidst further downside.

Once the probabilities for this scenario increase to the point that they outweigh current economic events I cannot position myself to look in that direction. I have to take a bias until indicators shift again if they do at all. Only way to profit or loose is to take a stance. Better than just sitting on the sidelines un-invested.