squ1d, There are several reasons I put up my bearish posts here
One is to provide a contrarian view to an overly bullish thread on gold. I've heard that there was supposed to be an unbiased view but I do not see it so I question the validity of those points. Bias can appear in all shapes and forms. Even a subtle play of words can expose ones bias. Something as simple as saying "this need support here" or as opposed to saying” looks like there is risk of breaking support here". Ignoring technical indicators on expected bottoms to support ones own view. It's how we are. No one can be truly unbiased, prejudices appear as early as a year old when a child chooses to like or dislike a particular food, or their parents over other people. you can't get away from it but you ca fight it. To state one has an agenda means a total disregard of being fair and unobjectionable
Second is that there is as much misleading information in the Gold bug articles as there is on CNBC. I've read through many of the articles on some of these gold bug sites and I see them as really grasping at straws. Everyone remember the articles regarding the US Dollar and gold going up at the same time. Odd that the timing of the article correlates to a reversal signal on the USD.
Third I know the upside probability of Gold in this market. I know the events that need to transpire for Gold to break higher than $450, both technically and economically. People are allocating their assets both toward that direction and against it. My speculation as to Gold moving to the upside requires 3 event to take place as follow.
Long Term Upside requires
1. A Fed Rate hike to 3.0% that does not break the Target Rate over the Zero Line. AND
2. Interest rates across the board to fall ahead of a rising Fed rate. Meaning inflation is become stagnant. AND
3. The Fed to continue to pause rates or return to dropping them to protect against a recession.
Short Term is all technical. To maintain support on the inflation bull trendline (the symmetrical triangle pattern). A breakdown of that trendline positions gold to create a Falling Wedge or Flag. Either pattern can cause a reversal of that Short Term trend and renew the advance of the Long term events take place, or create a bounce amidst further downside.
Once the probabilities for this scenario increase to the point that they outweigh current economic events I cannot position myself to look in that direction. I have to take a bias until indicators shift again if they do at all. Only way to profit or loose is to take a stance. Better than just sitting on the sidelines un-invested.
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