Replies to post #13048 on Mostly: Classical

[Frank Pembleton]

TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels

 
  
  
  
     NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - Following is a selection of  
 comments from analysts on important technical developments in  
 the foreign exchange market:  
      
     CITIFX TECHNICALS:  
     EURO/DOLLAR: "Continues lower but approaching region of  
 support. Euro/dollar continues to look very heavy on the  
 monthly charts, no change in view there at all - however, we  
 are approaching good short term daily chart supports; 200-day  
 moving average at $1.2769 and recent lows at $1.2732. Also on  
 the longer-term charts the uptrend from the October 2002 lows  
 comes in at $1.2722, then 55-week moving average at $1.2598.  
 Overall, we believe the signs are there that these supports are  
 not going to hold this time, but all the same they are very  
 good levels, and may/should slow things for a bit, making the  
 price action increasingly volatile as we approach them."  
     DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "Above daily chart pivot. Converged  
 76.4percent retracement, 200-day moving average and downtrend  
 across recent highs is now broken. Keeps daily positive for  
 highs at 1.2263 francs."  
     AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR/U.S. DOLLAR: "Sell rallies, don't buy  
 dips. Aussie/dollar at daily support at $0.7635-$0.7612, but  
 weekly and monthly on both look in serious trouble.  
     DOLLAR/YEN: "Leading the dollar higher. We should not be  
 underemphasising that dollar/yen has broken the downtrend from  
 2002 highs - that's the bear market downtrend. Next major  
 levels are not until 111.74 yen."  
  
     GEORGE E. DAVIS, DIRECTOR & CHIEF FX TECHNICAL ANALYST, RBC  
 CAPITAL MARKETS:  
     CANADIAN DOLLAR/MEXICAN PESO: "The daily close below  
 trendline support at 9.2930 has prompted a short-term price  
 retracement that targets the support area between 9.1240 and  
 9.0750. A move toward 9.1240 remains valid as the daily studies  
 have yet to reach oversold levels and continue to display  
 additional downside momentum. We also point out that the 40 and  
 200-day moving averages are located nearby at 9.1080 and 9.0476  
 respectively, and these levels are expected to provide some  
 additional support. (The) 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of  
 the February-March upmove from 8.8833 to 9.3465 is located just  
 below the current market at 9.1696 - with a daily close below  
 this level projecting a deeper correction toward the 50 percent  
 retracement level at 9.1149 (just below initial support at  
 9.1240 and slightly above the 40-day moving average at 9.1080),  
 followed by 61.8 percent retracement at 9.0602. Prices will now  
 have to close above resistance at 9.3085 in order to terminate  
 the retracement phase, with this bullish trend reversal  
 targeting 9.3465/9.3962.  
  
 Currency bid prices at 13:17 GMT. All data taken from Reuters  
 calculated from the levels at 20:30 GMT in the  
 previous New York session.  
  
                       Last  US Close    %      YTD     2004  
                             04 April  Change %Change    Close  
 -------------------------------------------------------------  
 Euro/dlr   <EUR=>    1.2845   1.2847   -0.02   -5.26   1.3558  
 Dlr/yen    <JPY=>    108.34   108.30   +0.04   +5.75   102.45  
 Euro/yen   <EURJPY=> 139.22   139.16   +0.04   +0.24   138.88  
 Dlr/swiss  <CHF=>    1.2072   1.2095   -0.19   +6.08   1.1380  
 Stg/dlr    <GBP=>    1.8767   1.8748   +0.10   -2.17   1.9184  
 Dlr/cad    <CAD=>    1.2211   1.2231   -0.16   +1.52   1.2028  
 Aus/dlr    <AUD=>    0.7668   0.7675   -0.09   -1.93   0.7819  
 Euro/swiss <EURCHF=> 1.5515   1.5541   -0.17   +0.32   1.5466  
 Euro/stg   <EURGBP=> 0.6842   0.6849   -0.10   -3.21   0.7069