TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels
NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - Following is a selection of
comments from analysts on important technical developments in
the foreign exchange market:
CITIFX TECHNICALS:
EURO/DOLLAR: "Continues lower but approaching region of
support. Euro/dollar continues to look very heavy on the
monthly charts, no change in view there at all - however, we
are approaching good short term daily chart supports; 200-day
moving average at $1.2769 and recent lows at $1.2732. Also on
the longer-term charts the uptrend from the October 2002 lows
comes in at $1.2722, then 55-week moving average at $1.2598.
Overall, we believe the signs are there that these supports are
not going to hold this time, but all the same they are very
good levels, and may/should slow things for a bit, making the
price action increasingly volatile as we approach them."
DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "Above daily chart pivot. Converged
76.4percent retracement, 200-day moving average and downtrend
across recent highs is now broken. Keeps daily positive for
highs at 1.2263 francs."
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR/U.S. DOLLAR: "Sell rallies, don't buy
dips. Aussie/dollar at daily support at $0.7635-$0.7612, but
weekly and monthly on both look in serious trouble.
DOLLAR/YEN: "Leading the dollar higher. We should not be
underemphasising that dollar/yen has broken the downtrend from
2002 highs - that's the bear market downtrend. Next major
levels are not until 111.74 yen."
GEORGE E. DAVIS, DIRECTOR & CHIEF FX TECHNICAL ANALYST, RBC
CAPITAL MARKETS:
CANADIAN DOLLAR/MEXICAN PESO: "The daily close below
trendline support at 9.2930 has prompted a short-term price
retracement that targets the support area between 9.1240 and
9.0750. A move toward 9.1240 remains valid as the daily studies
have yet to reach oversold levels and continue to display
additional downside momentum. We also point out that the 40 and
200-day moving averages are located nearby at 9.1080 and 9.0476
respectively, and these levels are expected to provide some
additional support. (The) 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of
the February-March upmove from 8.8833 to 9.3465 is located just
below the current market at 9.1696 - with a daily close below
this level projecting a deeper correction toward the 50 percent
retracement level at 9.1149 (just below initial support at
9.1240 and slightly above the 40-day moving average at 9.1080),
followed by 61.8 percent retracement at 9.0602. Prices will now
have to close above resistance at 9.3085 in order to terminate
the retracement phase, with this bullish trend reversal
targeting 9.3465/9.3962.
Currency bid prices at 13:17 GMT. All data taken from Reuters
calculated from the levels at 20:30 GMT in the
previous New York session.
Last US Close % YTD 2004
04 April Change %Change Close
-------------------------------------------------------------
Euro/dlr <EUR=> 1.2845 1.2847 -0.02 -5.26 1.3558
Dlr/yen <JPY=> 108.34 108.30 +0.04 +5.75 102.45
Euro/yen <EURJPY=> 139.22 139.16 +0.04 +0.24 138.88
Dlr/swiss <CHF=> 1.2072 1.2095 -0.19 +6.08 1.1380
Stg/dlr <GBP=> 1.8767 1.8748 +0.10 -2.17 1.9184
Dlr/cad <CAD=> 1.2211 1.2231 -0.16 +1.52 1.2028
Aus/dlr <AUD=> 0.7668 0.7675 -0.09 -1.93 0.7819
Euro/swiss <EURCHF=> 1.5515 1.5541 -0.17 +0.32 1.5466
Euro/stg <EURGBP=> 0.6842 0.6849 -0.10 -3.21 0.7069
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