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iwfal

01/29/11 6:52 PM

#113625 RE: bladerunner1717 #113624

OT

we'll see if this growth rate is sustainable.



Fine - that's as may be. But we are so past any reasonable definition of double dip that perhaps you might want to concede the point?
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zipjet

01/30/11 8:19 AM

#113652 RE: bladerunner1717 #113624

I'm vacationing and catching up on some reading.

Rogoff's "This Time is Different" is well worth reading especially for data junkies:

http://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691142165

The recent credit crisis that they call the Second Great Contraction is taking a much more shallow course and shorter term than it would have without the Bernanke intervention.

Had this SGC been in line with historic expectations it likely would have seen a 9% drop in GDP, high teen or low 20's unemployment (std statistic), an 86% jump in government debt, and take 10 years for recovery of GDP to the prior peak.

I do think the economy is in for strong head winds as governments balance their budgets.

ij