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Re: bladerunner1717 post# 113624

Sunday, 01/30/2011 8:19:48 AM

Sunday, January 30, 2011 8:19:48 AM

Post# of 257269
I'm vacationing and catching up on some reading.

Rogoff's "This Time is Different" is well worth reading especially for data junkies:

http://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691142165

The recent credit crisis that they call the Second Great Contraction is taking a much more shallow course and shorter term than it would have without the Bernanke intervention.

Had this SGC been in line with historic expectations it likely would have seen a 9% drop in GDP, high teen or low 20's unemployment (std statistic), an 86% jump in government debt, and take 10 years for recovery of GDP to the prior peak.

I do think the economy is in for strong head winds as governments balance their budgets.

ij

There are times when rules and precedents cannot be broken; others when they cannot be adhered to with safety. (Thomas Joplin)

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