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News Focus
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sylvester80

11/20/02 11:18 PM

#47738 RE: Zeev Hed #47736

The higher this new bubble flies, the bigger the crash will be. New lower lows are now in the cards IMO.

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AKvetch

11/20/02 11:21 PM

#47739 RE: Zeev Hed #47736

Semi Capex (Note: these are not the SEMI numbers):

Fab tool book-to-bill hits 0.86 in October

By Mark LaPedus
Semiconductor Business News
(11/20/02 05:52 p.m. EST)

SAN JOSE--Reflecting the current IC downturn, the book-to-bill ratio for the worldwide semiconductor equipment industry hit 0.86 for the month of October, a slight decline from 0.89 in September, according to new figures from VLSI Research Inc. here today.

In November, the chip-equipment market is not expected to improve, as the worldwide equipment book-to-bill ratio is projected to fall to 0.85, according to the San Jose-based research firm.

“Conditions throughout the electronics food chain remain dismal, leading to further deterioration in equipment billings for the rest of the year,” according to VLSI Research.

Billings for October were the lowest level for the second half of 2002. Billings were $2.245 billion for October, down 30% from $3.233 billion from September, but up 15% from the like period a year ago, according to VLSI Research.

Bookings were $1.936 billion last month, down from $2.885 in September, according to the research firm.

Of the total billings in October, $1.34 billion were for wafer processing equipment, $440 million for test and related equipment, $120 million for assembly, and $340 million for service and spares.

In comparison, of the total billings in September, $1.72 billion were for wafer processing equipment, $650 million for test and related equipment, $200 million for assembly, and $340 million for service and spares.

It could go from bad to worse. In November, billings and booking are expected to hit $2.155 billion and $1.841 billion, respectively.



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AKvetch

11/20/02 11:22 PM

#47740 RE: Zeev Hed #47736

IC book-to-bill slides to 0.87, says VLSI Research

By Mark LaPedus
Semiconductor Business News
(11/20/02 06:08 p.m. EST)

SAN JOSE--More doom and gloom for the IC industry. The three-month rolling average of the book-to-bill ratio for semiconductors dropped to 0.87 for the month of October, down from 0.91 in September, according to new figures from VLSI Research Inc. here today.

The IC book-to-bill ratio is expected to remain at 0.87 in November, when bookings are forecasted at $9.67 billion and billings are at $11.09 billion, according to the San Jose-based market research firm.

October bookings were at $9.40 billion and billings were at $10.82 billion, according to VLSI Research. In comparison, September bookings were at $9.52 billion and billings were at $10.51 billion, according to the report.

Fab-capacity utilization has been sliding down from the peak of 87% in June. It was at 84% in October and is anticipated to drop further to 79% in November, according to the market research firm.

“In their pursuit of profitability, IC makers are cutting production to raise prices,” according to VLSI Research. “At the same time, they are adding capacity inexpensively through the following: 1) They are converting existing capacity to tighter CDs, but not production. Reported utilization rates include production of looser geometry parts on tighter capacity, and 2) They are relying on equipment discounts; there is a fair amount of order cancellations and then rebooking at lower prices,” according to VLSI Research.





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titan3

11/20/02 11:41 PM

#47746 RE: Zeev Hed #47736

Looks like we're there Zeev (if you count the futures):

1419 + 7.50= 1426.50


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leon

11/20/02 11:56 PM

#47754 RE: Zeev Hed #47736

Zeev, thanks for the heads-up on brks; among the three you posted the other day as possible "dark-siders", i liked the looks of this one the best from a ta/fa basis. not sure how it will react in the morning given the upside-down nature of this mkt., but regardless, appreciate your calling this to the boards attention. LEON

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bull bear

11/21/02 11:51 AM

#47963 RE: Zeev Hed #47736

This sure is a bullish bear rally. How much higher I do not care to guess. However I think I am a little more pessimistic than you Zeev...I think the 6-8 months after Jan 03 will be a disaster. After the past few week’s performance, I believe 1222.22 is an "optimistic" bottom. We sure do an effective job at trashing our markets! All in all though…good swings to make $ in.