Does anyone mind to comment of why a drop like that (to 950 or so, even 1222) is likely to happen independent of the top of this rally? It looks like no matter what the top of the rally will be, you guys agree the mkt will go back to 1222 or below.
Hope to not get your "boooos" for this question but I can't stop being rationale. Call it ignorance, if you like.
It looks to me the recent TA targets failed to materialize this time (many, not only Zeev, predicted a drop by 10-15% when in the 1370'ish area).
But the same TA targets failed to materialize at the top 2 years ago. I don't know what Zeev predicted at that moment but the big drop was not in many's TA cards when NAz was 5000.
Why it should 100% TA based calls work better this time?
What I'm saying is maybe there are some (unknown) aspects that may change the future picture and this implies your prediction, with a such long time frame and for a big drop to a *constant* value is pretty much close to 50% probability.
What these "aspects" would be - I don't know - somethin' that justifies the run for the hills all of the sudden, something the big boys may know and not me, something that makes recovery or better earnings *more* likely to happen independent of what the charts predict for the next day or so.
/jet
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