In 30 years...sure, in 30 years, the current secular bear will probably die, a new secular Bull will be born, and by the time we reach 2020/2025, we might even start another secular bea market, just in time for old Europe to be replaced in the world by new Europe, Russia and China.... Each of these countries will bring with them the growth of a middle class, ergo, consuming class.... Hey, by 2035, we might even see some cooperation between the various countries in the mid east, bringing up another generation of "mighty consumers".
The current secular bear market is "designed" to reequilibrate some of the world problems. So far, it is being done without any major crash, a crash, if I remember was supposed to be on us since the late 80' (The Grand Kondratieff cycle). But somehow, 20 years later, the mountain of $13 Tillion debt we were supposed to have by 2005, has not materialized. Mind you, there are a lot of problems, but there are also a lot of intrinsic trends ameliorating these problems.
If you adjust for inflation, crude is far from the peak it was in the late 70' early 80', and energy contribution to GDP (and thus cost pressures) has declined from 15% to half that much today. So yes, paying $2/gallon is tough, but the Europeans have been paying that on average for the last 20 years.
The CRB is finally, after 25 years of being moribund, reaching the levels it reached in the early 80's, if you take into account inflation, commodities are still extremely cheap.
Right now, whether I am in denial or not, we once more are in the middle of a goldilock economy, not too hot, not too cold, just right. Old behemoth are being taken to the woodshed, and new leviathans are being born.
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