Replies to post #371654 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Joe Stocks]

>>Reflecting this "optimistic view", <<

92% long equities going into a unsettling week of high crude prices, a very possible increase of potentially 1/2% by the FOMC, and the kick-off of 'early warnings' season.

Got balls??

[lee kramer]

Hi Zeev: 8% huh? I like a man with conviction. And 8% is conviction!

[Rick Louden]

Zeev, we've also had a few days in March of ticks below -1000 as I now you follow. And the total put/call closed at greater than 1.25 Friday which is not a normal occurrence. Perhaps it has something to do with options expiration coupled with the S&P change (?), but it is normally a notable event. In the last five years when this has happened, the QQQ on average has increased 10% in the next 3 months, 15% in the next 6 months and 27% in the next 12 months.

My model is very bullish now. Of course that may not be a good thing as it underperformed in 2004! (although overall outperforms the market over multiple years)

Also of interest is that although the chart of the Nasdaq might look a bit shaky to some, the broad NYSE index is in a strong uptrend still.

Rick

[Alexander]

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm/050318/9b9614a1842042bba6c2cc03198a9e9a_1.html

I agree with you that I see much more upside than downside from here. In fact downside is limited IMO. If we move back under 2000, I don't think it will be for long.

alexander

[porter]

We're going nowhere fast( or should I say slow?<g>)
There's now 6.5 million OddlotSS that are ripe for a melt-up or a Monday run.










"I'm not a fatalist but even if I was what could I do about it?"

[extelecom]

Zeev, Interesting. I see quite a few here and other places with Bearish views.... Of course I have seen one out actively buyng long on margin as well... I am as committed as you... Lets hope it goes up. Maybe now that oex is over. I think any FED move is priced in unless they do something radical which I would think very unlikely.

[ogm]

I think the market is constantly evolving, and many indicators that worked in the past won't work in the future or need to be adjusted. Even in the past 5 years the participants of the market have changed. There aren't many retail investors and traders left. Most of the participants are ETF playing Hedge funds and mutual funds these days.

Besides at the start of a major decline there are always short term oversold readings generated, but they resolve without the advance in prices. I think thats the situation we're at right now.

I'm looking at endless monthly parabolic charts, and I just can't imagine any further upside. Too many bearish divegences have developed lately on weekly/monthly charts. Something big is afoot.

You're right, the market isn't prepared to drop in oil. And may pop for a couple days on oil decline, but the marco economy dynamics are changing. The effects of 3 years of Tax cuts/rate cuts/ and home equity loans should be coming to an end pretty soon and there is nothing to offset them.

Consumers have extracted 600 bln dollars out of homes last year alone. How long can this last ? with wage growth stagnant at best, where would the spending power come from ?

Market is starting to sense it, and I think from now on every rally will be sold with vengeance. The trend is changing.

[Ace Hanlon]

Zeev;

I agree that a sharp drop in crude probably would trigger a good rally in global markets. But I suspect that would be the final "hook" before a really big drop to perhaps the Dow 10,000 area.

[ayahuasca]

Zeev,

Where do you go to get statistics like the EPC and % of stocks below their 10-day moving average? Is there a site, or program for that matter, that will let you track a variety of indicators such as these?