I think the market is constantly evolving, and many indicators that worked in the past won't work in the future or need to be adjusted. Even in the past 5 years the participants of the market have changed. There aren't many retail investors and traders left. Most of the participants are ETF playing Hedge funds and mutual funds these days.
Besides at the start of a major decline there are always short term oversold readings generated, but they resolve without the advance in prices. I think thats the situation we're at right now.
I'm looking at endless monthly parabolic charts, and I just can't imagine any further upside. Too many bearish divegences have developed lately on weekly/monthly charts. Something big is afoot.
You're right, the market isn't prepared to drop in oil. And may pop for a couple days on oil decline, but the marco economy dynamics are changing. The effects of 3 years of Tax cuts/rate cuts/ and home equity loans should be coming to an end pretty soon and there is nothing to offset them.
Consumers have extracted 600 bln dollars out of homes last year alone. How long can this last ? with wage growth stagnant at best, where would the spending power come from ?
Market is starting to sense it, and I think from now on every rally will be sold with vengeance. The trend is changing.
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
