Replies to post #369579 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

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I'll buy any dip on hdtv around 4.20 ish. BTW design win contracts usually always have an out.

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Toll Brothers Looks Fine to Sell

By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
3/14/2005 3:01 PM EST
Click here for more stories by James J. Cramer

Toll Brothers (TOL:NYSE) BEARISH
Price: $79.57 / 52-Week Range: $36.29-$91.19
The insider selling in Toll Brothers makes it scary to bottom-fish in the stock.
Toll is now in the position that some of the tech stocks were in 2000, when execs reiterated and sold all the way down.
Toll's not to be owned here, because there's something bigger going on, and we won't know what until too late.


Position: None





Darned insider selling. Makes you scared to death to "bottom fish" with Toll Brothers (TOL:NYSE - commentary - research), even as its multiple seems to contract before our eyes.

I believe in real estate. I think that real estate is a key asset in your portfolio.

But Toll Brothers, the stock, just got too high. Now we just have to wait for it to settle down. I don't think the homebuilders group can move back up without Toll and I don't think Toll can turn because that wave of insider selling just keeps getting reported.

I am not a believer in using insider selling as the tool for figuring out what to do with a stock. It is a tool, though, and when you see concentrated selling in a name, insider selling, you do get gun-shy.

So do the analysts.

But Toll is now in the position that some of the tech stocks were in 2000. Remember that period? If not, I will refresh you. Every few days, after a brutal selloff, the execs would come out and say that they see strong demand and that all is well. "Toll Brothers Reiterates Strong Demand for Luxury Homes," screamed the headline from March 8, when the stock was still in the high $80s.

Now it's in the high $70s.

When you see stuff like this, you have to remember people like the execs at Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq - commentary - research) and Nortel (NT:NYSE - commentary - research) reiterating that they saw strong router demand,, something they and their analyst acolytes did all the way down. Of course, they, too, sold all the way down -- the insiders, that is.

And you were crushed if you listened to what they said.

Bottom line: Toll's not to be owned here. There's something bigger going on, maybe something with interest rates, maybe something with the Fed, maybe something with the consumer. I doubt we will know what it is until it's too late to sell.

But we are nowhere near that level yet. We are just fine to sell, just fine.