Are we here yet? The AHIP chip makes it real imo. With AHIP chip in place I also believe the high projection @ 1000/month with 1300 insurance groups is pretty conservative. In a couple of previous posts I did figures out based on birth rates/130k born with disease in the US and 1 out of 10 elderly >65 yo in need of stem cell transplant for US. There is huge demand to store by AHIP. It requires more than one lab to meet the US demand. My figures put CBAI somewhere in the $billion dollar range with AHIP/CBAI/Afford-A-Cord. Maybe too macro for some. But then again I stated with an o/s correction I expect a $100 pps. I also believe these earlier CBAI projections were solely based on the BCBSA relationship and not the major AHIP alliance announcement. Resharpen the pencils boys and raise projections.
SMALLER COMPETITORS NEED AN EXIT STRATEGY
. As the expected industry consolidation occurs, CBAI offers a unique exit strategy for smaller competitors who are not as vertically integrated
. Through an acquisition roll-up strategy CBAI offers smaller competitors a unique and liquid exit strategy where they can still participate in the industry’s through CBAI’s growth...
What does that AHIP alliance really mean? :-)
It means CBAI is the gatekeeper and those smaller labs pay-to-play in the AHIP/CBAI pool paying CBAI a fee in the US and perhaps abroad to participate. Is CBAI the goto umbrella stem storage gatekeeper kind of like AHIP is to the insurance industry? Looks it to me...
CBAI VALUATION SUMMARY -- potential three times per share price increase... $.03 easily with Afford-A-Cord AHIP commercial contract
Organic internal growth
With the new pricing policy, discussed below, CBAI should be able to significantly increase new account additions
Low-range estimate: 500 per month
. If new account additions average 500 per month for the next 24 months, then contract value (similar to oil reserves) would increase by $72mm, at $6,000 net present value per contract
. If $72mm is added to the current market valuation of $32mm
. Then CBAI could be valued at $104mm or over $.02 per share, a increase of over 3.3x the current $.0063 per share price
Mid-range estimate: 750 per month
. If new account additions average 750 per month for the next 24 months, then contract value (similar to oil reserves) would increase by $108mm. If $108mm is added to the current market valuation of $32mm
. Then CBAI could be valued at $140mm or over $.028 per share, a increase of over 4.4x the current $.0063 per share price
High-range estimate: 1,000 per month
. If new account additions average 1000 per month for the next 24 months, then contract value (similar to oil reserves) would increase by $144mm. If $144mm is added to the current market valuation of $32mm
. Then CBAI could be valued at $176mm or over $.035 per share, a increase of over 5.5x the current $.0063 per share price
CBAI Growth by acquisition
The above valuation does not account for roll-up acquisitions, expected to increase earnings per share.
CBAI/AHIP NEW COMMERCIAL CONTRACT PRICING POLICY
Each new contract is worth $6,000 in net present value to according to CBAI
The new pricing program (see ‘afford-a-cord’ below) is designed to
. Expand the overall market
. Consolidate the industry by exerting price pressure on smaller competitors
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