Replies to post #108857 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Bearish signal? The point of MNTA management is to maximize shareholder value and if they can obtain $20+/share today for its mLovenox revenue stream they would be foolish not too even if they have 99% certainty tLovenox will never obtain approval, IMHO.

Yes, the point is to maximize shareholder value. So, the question in my mind is does MNTA management view monetization of its generic Lovenox profits as greater than the profits it can earn by retaining its rights to generic Lovenox profits over the longer term if it has confidence that m-enoxaparin will remain the sole generic Lovenox. FWIW, I am not strictly saying that MNTA's potential decision to monetize its generic Lovenox profits means it's not confident that it will remain the sole company with generic Lovenox approval. If management views the decision to monetize generic Lovenox profits as the greatest way to maximize shareholder value, even if they are confident they will remain the only company with generic Lovenox approval, presumably they will do so. I am simply questioning whether or not the monetization of the generic Lovenox profits is the best way to maximize shareholder value.

Now if NVS is willing to pay $1 billion for mLovenox I would hope CW could negotiate selling all of MNTA for $2+ billion.

FWIW, I'm fine with a buyout north of $2B. ; )

[iwfal]

I would hope CW could negotiate selling all of MNTA for $2+ billion.

A little confused by this. Everyone here seems to give high odds to there being no t-enox. In which case MNTA will be earning $150-200M per year - and at P/E=20 that equates to about $3-4B. With no value whatsoever attributed to any of the rest of their pipeline.

Note that going back to Dew's other thread on people's valuation - I have noted over the years that most people who claim to be ltbh are in fact not so. And one of the ways it shows up is in buyout offers that desired are amazingly low.

[HattieTheWitch]

...they would be foolish not too even if they have 99% certainty tLovenox will never obtain approval, IMHO.

Who can say what the future holds?

If you were NVSs CEO, would you lay out $1 billion in present dollars given the possibility, a possibility that you would be hard-pressed to quantify, that TEVAs generic got approved?

I sure wouldn't - so I only have $.1 billion in MNTA! ;-)