Replies to post #108877 on Biotech Values

[10nisman]

If you were NVSs CEO, would you lay out $1 billion in present dollars given the possibility, a possibility that you would be hard-pressed to quantify, that TEVAs generic got approved?

What I think doesn't matter. However, if I was running NVS today I would consider offering $40-45/share for all of MNTA with an additional $5/share worth of milestone payments related to M356.

Obviously the value of mLovenox is largely driven by it remaining the sole generic however I think NVS/Sandoz are pretty comfortable with that assumption. If tLovenox obtains approval NVS will likely be making annual royalty payments of $50+ million to MNTA. So paying out 3 years of MNTA's share of mLovenox profits today ($1+ billion) to obtain 100% of profits on a go-forward basis isn't an unreasonable investment to make especially for NVS which is generating $10+ billion of annual free cash flow, IMHO.

10nis