Replies to post #41116 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Ballistic]

hey Zeev .....

u ever lose your kool ??? .....
like ....take out a piece of the wall ???
roundhouse someone in the head ....??

just wondering .......
your patience is A_M_A_Z_I_N_G .....

have a nice one ......

cya
david

[mjk]

Nice summary Zeev, the question is, where to next? You mentioned a couple days ago that a Fed rate cut would change your stance to extremely bearish, you said early today you may become more bearish if the rally continues (maybe this was yesterday afternoon), and then a little while ago you said 1222.22 may be out of the question now, sounding even less bearish than before.

Since I'm expecting the Fed to lower rates, my question would be how low do we go if they do, and, where do you feel it's going to start from, below 1388, or approaching 1425?

TIA

[MechanicalMethod]

Zeev,

I'm often amazed by the timing of your trades and wonder if you would be willing to share a bit of the technical analysis that you use to get in and out.

Best regards, MM

[Rayman]

Zeev,I think the problem is some people regarded your "teddy bearish" stance as a signal for shorting. That is unfortunate, as orkrious and I once yelled on the SI thread, that Zeev's high cash position DOES NOT necessarily serve as a signal for shorting!!

I have been yelling at top of my lung for the past 20 days, almost every day, of my suspicion that this one is just like last Oct-Nov, wave of EOD rallies to kill the shorts. So I didn't short(only intra day as a way to get long).

I still regard your turnips as the best can be. I learned the lesson that capital preservation is more important than capital appreciation. I strongly suspect now, if the rally keeps going like this, next year will NOT be pretty. But the rally can continue through November nevertheless.

The only thing really irritate me is seeing the stocks I sold at 20 to 50% gains are making goddamned 50% to 100% gains on top of my sales. Unbelievable. TLAB, CIEN, AMCC, CNXT, VTSS, BEAS are behaving like crazy. Too bad I sold them too early. Well, C'est la vie I guess.

And of course, with my luck, I sold some of the gainers and stuck with Oh My God loser OMG!! I need to be kicked or I want to kick the CEO instead!

Have a great weekend. It's a super fun week except OMG.

[Tenchu]

Zeev, <Now you tell me what is so wrong or "consistently wrong" with these calls.>

Isn't it obvious, Zeev? If you're not calling the exact top or the exact bottom right down to the day, you are "consistently wrong." ;-)

No need to defend yourself, Zeev, though I do appreciate the detail in which you laid out your recent history of calls. I'm sure any naysayer can find some balls-to-the-walls strategy and beat your Turnips on occasion. But as for me, I'm learning how to balance capital preservation over capital appreciation. You see, I got into investing during the supreme bull market of the late 90's, and back then, capital preservation only meant a missed opportunity for more gains. Now that I've seen my portfolio drop by a large amount (luckily no margin), I'm learning to temper my greed with discipline.

By the way, remember the good old days of Rambus? There's a stock whose technicals we'll probably never see again. Kind of funny looking back at that now.

Tenchu

[brightness]

Zeev, I do not trade according to turnips; to be very frank, I use quite a few posters here as contrarian indicators. The problem with the turnips is that, IMHO, they are too eager to be counter-trend heroes. Either that, or something is lost in the translation from turnipian to hungarian to english. Turnip posts' emphasis was shifted to a bullish stand in the upper to middle 1200's (with a 1222 as max low, it was only logical to start loading at 1280) when NAZ was on its way down to 1100; then after the rally finally launched itself shortly after the turnips started to waiver in faith (no more bottom visible), their emphasis was shifted to pull-back and retest. We have been reading about a pull-back and retest ever since Friday October 11th, when the NAZ closed at 1210. I have been warning bears not to buy into those counter-trend forecasts ever since then. So long as so many bears cling to those pull-back dreams, it's not gonna happen. The current up trend has not shown any sign of weakening either on the stochastics or MACD; all those bearish noises we hear are just wishful thinking by trapped bears. Why fight the tape.