Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

Brightness, your characterization is quite faulty and your logic lacking, I did not say 1388 sometime in the next few decades, I said before the end of the year, and I said that when all the "retracers" were coming here to tell us that before November is out 1000 on the Naz will be history.

Your problem is that you want someone to lead you by the hand through every single wiggle this market makes, I don't know how to do that, I doubt anyone can. The purpose of my "musings" is to keep cash hoards high when I perceive the market risks to be high (and now they are) and low cash position when the market risks are perceived to be low (as they were when the turnips donned their horns). I am not sure if you were around during the hey days of the Nassacre, the turnips served me extremely well then. But even since then, I am not complaining, they turned bullish on the close of 7/2 (1356) to catch a sharp 100 Naz point rally, they should have turned bearish after the first two three days, but they turned neutral instead. The turnips then turned strongly bullish on 7/23 at 1228 (the beginning of the first Dow gambit) and turned bearish 8/22 at 1426. Then they turned bullish again very fast after the 100 Naz points promised on 8/28 (around Naz 1300), and then turned bearish again on 9/11 (naz 1347). Their biggest error was turning bullish prematurely (that what happen when political considerations, no war with Iraq are allowed in the model) on 9/16 (1244) and suffered valiantly through the 10/9 debacle (cash near nil on 10/8). They next turned "mild bearish" on 10/11 at 1220 and reversed course to bullish when we failed to get even close to the 1163 on the next retrenchment, at 1231, an 11 Naz points loss. Last week on 10/24 at 1323 (but fully expecting 1347 to challenged, but not breached), the turnips turned mildly bearish for a target of 1222.22 (we got only 1279), and right now, they are still mildly bearish. Now you tell me what is so wrong or "consistently wrong" with these calls. I presume you are going to put your calls up here as comparison, if not just enjoy the view and don't complain so much. It is getting boring.

Zeev