Replies to post #1716 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[Tuff-Stuff]

oildrum<>In the spirit of Rod Serling, the following is submitted for your approval (and discussion):

In Our Hands, Part 1: How We Got What We Have (1950)

Posted by JoulesBurn on November 6, 2010 - 6:04pm in The Oil Drum: Campfire
Topic: Miscellaneous

How economic progress comes from the accumulation of privately owned tools of production; demonstrates the need for tools by showing a young couple with their infant child in a wilderness with nothing but natural resources and their hands.

A Campfire post with an actual campfire!

*VIEW VIDEO*

http://campfire.theoildrum.com/node/7058#more

Producer: Wilding Picture Productions, Inc.
Sponsor: American Economic Foundation, The (Inland Steel Co. & Borg-Warner Corp.)
Some Thoughts

I found the video (and the other parts linked below) very amusing for its quaintness and cheesy production, but I also found it rather thought-provoking. There are several energy-related issues raised, and dissecting each would require many posts. One particular theme relevant here, though, is that freedom, free markets, and free trade deliver the goods, so to speak.

An optimistic view on the future of oil tends to be either that there is plenty of oil as long as we allow ourselves to extract it, or that the market will offer a timely replacement as oil production dwindles. In the video, resources such as oil are assumed to be there for the taking. Having a free market which efficiently allocates those resources is the key to prosperity. This is basically an anti-communist film, painting a black/white view of the world.

This video was produced around 1950, and it speaks to the predominant inward view of the US at that time. The US emerged victorious from World War II, and that outcome is portrayed as being due to the superiority of "the American Way". Oppressive governments with strong and charismatic leaders necessarily lead to war and economic hardship. Communism was gaining ground at the time, though, in China and Korea. The USSR had detonated their own atomic bomb. Also, nature is viewed in an adversarial sense. It's dangerous to be outside (particularly in the hills outside of LA), and survivalism is not for the ill-prepared. In the Twilight Zone vignette, we are introduced to the worth of tools, matches, and the concept of trade. Technological development, particularly in agriculture, gets a big thumbs up. But then the main theme is driven hard: what made America successful?

Something happened in this country to produce a titanic upsurge in human ingenuity and spirit...what was it?

The answer, apparently, is God and the Declaration of Independence. Much is missing from this assessment, of course. Having abundant resources, technology brought from Europe, and geographic isolation during the wars probably helped some. Later, both in the above and in the other segments of the file, the apparent failure of the Native Americans to advance technologically relative to the more recent arrivals is crudely invoked to advance this argument. But while that broader question is interesting (i.e. why did primitive peoples in Eurasia develop technology and not those crossing the Bering Strait), I was struck by a partial explanation for this given in Part 4:

...we make better use of our natural resources.

For over 12,000 years, people lived off the natural resources and in fairly large numbers -- not necessarily comfortable lives, admittedly. But in less than a couple of centuries, the buffalo herds are gone, the salmon are gone, and much topsoil has flowed into the Gulf of Mexico or been covered with pavement. Writing this in a comfortable house stocked with food does make it hard to be completely objective.

But what happens if the oil runs low? In 1950, the US produced about 5.4 million barrels per day and imported about a tenth as much. Today, (after peaking at over eleven MMBPD in 1970) the US produces over seven million - while importing 11.5 million. Most of the productivity gains touted in the videos were it some way due to the burning of petroleum. It's fine to claim credit for the ingenuity of taking it out of the ground, refining it, and burning it. But it will take a different level of ingenuity to replace its use as fast as might be necessary.

Finally, these videos point to the political difficulties ahead trying to address energy issues rationally. You will find the essence of the Tea Party ideology (at least the more rational parts). Championing more government to deal with peak oil, even if it is acknowledged as such, will be a hard sell.

Here are the other segments, if you haven't seen enough yet:

* Part 2: What We Have
* Noteworthy quote: "...pay the costs all the way back to nature." Part 3: How To Lose What We Have
* "What you yappin' about? You voted for it!" Part 4: How To Keep What We Have
"Tools shorten our work hours"

40 comments on In Our Hands, Part 1: How We Got What We Have (1950)

[hang ten]

Thanks Dew, this is some good reading posted today.

[DewDiligence]

Coal Stocks Plunge on Reduced Forecast by ANR, WLT

[CLF has been part of the collateral damage.]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/21/us-coal-companies-idUSTRE78K6Y320110921

›Sep 21, 2011 5:08pm EDT
By Steve James

(Reuters) - U.S. coal miner Alpha Natural Resources Inc (ANR) cut its 2011 shipment forecast, citing reduced demand from the key Asian steel market among other things, and its shares fell 17 percent.

The news came as another major coal producer, Walter Energy (WLT), lowered its sales forecast for the second half of this year, because of weather and problems at some of its mines.

Alpha shares finished down 17.16 percent at $22.30 while Walter's stock dropped 11.67 percent to close on Wednesday at $66.25 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Other coal producers suffered too. Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) fell 12.8 percent to $61.55, Arch Coal (ACI) shares were down 10.5 percent at $16.12, Consol Energy (CNX) dropped 6 percent to $37.92 and Peabody Energy (BTU) ended down 6.9 percent at $39.96.

Profits of U.S. coal producers have been boosted in recent months by strong exports of metallurgical coal to steelmakers in Japan and South Korea, following floods in Queensland which reduced coal exports to the region from Australia.

Several U.S. miners have recently announced plans to increase met coal exports to the Pacific Rim area and Peabody is actively looking to acquire Australian coal assets to serve the Asian market. Met coal is a key steelmaking ingredient, used to fire blast furnaces.

But Brean Murray Carret & Co analyst Jeremy Sussman cautioned against viewing Alpha's lowered forecast as a signal the hot Asian steel market was cooling.

"This is the first time we've seen it, but I don't think it would be fair to say Asia is slowing down," he told Reuters in a telephone interview.

Sussman noted that China has been increasing metallurgical coal imports in recent months and while Alpha cited "unexpected curtailed customer activity levels" in Asia, that was more an indication of a flight away from some lower quality met coals.

"This is clearly not an across-the-board problem and shows that quality matters in this economic environment," he said.

In its statement, Alpha said it cut its full-year shipments forecast not only because of lower exports to Asia, but also because of a legal problem with a customer, lower production from its Emerald mine in Pennsylvania and lower production from some mines it recently acquired from former rival Massey Energy in Central Appalachia.

However, Sussman said Alpha's lowered volume to Asia would likely have an impact on other coal producers.

"This is a negative for U.S. coal producers that rely on lower-quality met coal for a good chunk of their earnings."

Abingdon, Virginia-based Alpha now expects full-year shipments of 102.5 million to 109.5 million tons, down from its previous range of 104 million to 112 million tons.

Alpha also cut its Eastern U.S. metallurgical coal shipment outlook range, mainly due to shipment levels in July and August.

Walter, meanwhile, said it sees lower second-half sales due to difficult conditions at an Alabama mine and slow recovery from a record rainfall in British Columbia.

The company said metallurgical coal sales would be slightly more than 5.2 million metric tons in the second half of 2011, lower than its forecast of 5.9 million metric tons. Its fourth quarter will suffer from a four-week shutdown due to a plant upgrade.

Walter sees third-quarter consolidated net income per share of $1.00 to $1.16. Analysts were expecting $3.23, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.‹