Replies to post #107628 on Biotech Values

[WID]

AVNR may become a blockbuster drug. The treatment cost is approx. $600 per month or around $7000 per year and the population for PBA is around 1.5 to 2 million people. Let assume that 10% of the population get the treatment so the revenue for AVNR is around $1B. This estimate does not include off-label uses.

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PBA is surprisingly prevalent, affecting both patients and those that care for them.[21] Prevalence estimates place the number of people with PBA between 1.5 and 2 million in the United States alone. However, given the fact that PBA is a relatively common disorder among patients with various neurologic conditions, its actual prevalence may be higher. Furthermore, PBA is generally thought to be under-recognized and undertreated because clinicans are unfamiliar with the disorder.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudobulbar_affect

Prevalence in patients with stroke

PBA is one of the most frequently reported poststroke behavioral syndromes, with a range of reported prevalence rates from 28% to 52%. The higher prevalence rates tend to be reported in stroke patients who are older and/or who have a history of prior stroke. The relationship between poststroke depression and PBA is complicated, because the depressive syndrome also occurs with high frequency in stroke survivors. Poststroke patients with PBA are more depressed than poststroke patients without PBA, and the presence of a depressive syndrome may exacerbate the weeping side of PBA symptoms

Prevalence in patients with MS

Recent studies suggest a lifetime prevalence of PBA of approximately 10% in patients with MS. PBA is generally associated with later stages of the disease (chronic progressive phase).[32] PBA in MS patients is associated with more severe intellectual deterioration, physical disability, and neurological disability.

Prevalence in patients with ALS

A study designed specifically to survey for prevalence found that 49% of patients with ALS also had PBA. PBA does not appear to be associated with duration of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Prevalence in patients with TBI

One study of 301 consecutive cases in a clinic setting reported a 5% prevalence. PBA occurred in patients with more severe head injury and coincided with other neurological features suggestive of pseudobulbar palsy.