Replies to post #107722 on Biotech Values

[WID]

AVNR News from FierceBiotech..

Shares of Avanir Pharmaceuticals (AVNR) soared 112 percent as news spread that the FDA has approved Nuedexta, the first treatment for pseudobulbar affect, or involuntary emotional expression syndrome. Peak sales for the new drug are projected to hit $350 million to $500 million and some analysts quickly began buzzing about a potential takeover in the wake of an approval.

The approval marks a major success for Avanir, which had to go back to the drawing board four years ago after the FDA told the developer that it was worried about the potential impact of one of the chemical ingredients in the therapy. Investigators then cut the dose level of quinidine by a third and reported more than a year ago that the new formulation of Nuedexta, once called Zenvia, met the primary endpoint in a new trial.

More than two million people with neurological conditions like Lou Gehrig's disease and Alzheimer's suffer from involuntary emotional outbursts, crying and laughing jags that occur with no warning. "We like to refer to PBA as one of the most common diseases that people have never heard of,'' Avanir CEO Keith Katkin told the New York Times.

Reuters story raised the prospect of a potential takeover, noting that pharma companies have been prowling the globe for new drugs like Nuedexta.

http://www.fiercebiotech.com/story/will-avanir-drug-ok-spark-takeover-attempt/2010-11-01

[jq1234]

the population for PBA is around 1.5 to 2 million people. Let assume that 10% of the population get the treatment so the revenue for AVNR is around $1B. This estimate does not include off-label uses.

You can bet the bank this will not happen. This comes from someone who didn't like NYTimes article on the drug. I guess there are people who are either very optimistic or delusional.

[DewDiligence]

AVNR—It’s not clear that the stroke and Alzheimer’s numbers should be counted as part of the addressable market. Just because the FDA label didn’t explicitly restrict use to patients with MS/ALS doesn’t mean that third-party payers won’t (#msg-56113786).

[kookiekook]

AVNR may become a blockbuster drug. The treatment cost is approx. $600 per month or around $7000 per year

According to AVNR in the CC held this morning, the treatment cost will be between $2000 and $5000 per year.

[rkrw]

Out of curiosity how many people on this board know people with PBA and severe enough to seek treatment?

Count me as a no, I don't have PBA or know of anyone with PBA :)

the population for PBA is around 1.5 to 2 million people. Let assume that 10% of the population get the treatment so the revenue for AVNR is around $1B.