Replies to post #107212 on Biotech Values

[dink00]

400 million, I agree is unbelievable unless there is lot more channel stocking and even in that case it still feels far fetched...

My expectation is around 230 - 250 million. I also estimate that all the reimbursement costs would have been paid off and an EPS of $1.00-$1.10 per share for Q4 2010.

For Q3 I estimate an EPS of $0.83

Let us see how it goes.

dink

[exwannabe]

Re: MNTA - mL W4 sales. R&R vs DD.

On its 3Q10 CC, NVS guided investors to expect 4Q10 Lovenox sales to be somewhat below 3Q10 sales. This makes sense insofar as channel stocking caused the effective duration of 3Q10 to be longer than an actual calendar quarter—my guess is 97 days (#msg-55778832).

Are seriously suggesting we should not trust R&R?

These guys are paid professionals.

Seriously though, is their coverage of real biotechs just a cover to help push their bio-crack?

On a legit question, is there any reason to assume the Sandoze COGS might be somewhat higher than normal for the start-up? I know you say the sales are pure automatic, but it seams like there has to some expenses at startup.

[OK, perhaps the title should be Q4, not W4]