Replies to post #39647 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[JMKel]

Zeev's resistence points have been very accurate for the most part. The timing has been off and sometimes the direction too when the resistence levels are/are not pentrated successfully.

No model can predict accurately all the external economic numbers which turn into events which in turn determine the direction and magnitude of market changes. I don't think he expects this and I certainly don't.

It is nevertheless a useful model with a number of significant successes.

JMO

[Sojourner Smith]

I noticed that on an excellent poster on SI.
He is right almost everytime, but on the first day they often
go the opposite direction.
If I followed the intraday indicators, I might get a better position.
If I wait for a better entry I miss a big move in my favor.
And when I start fiddling too much (jumping in and out) or lock in gains, I end up not making nearly as much as I would if I stuck with the original entry point.

I am trying to ignore 1 min and 10 min charts unless I am
going to master gap-up and gap-down plays.

So I am using 30, 60, and daily charts.
The 30 and the 60 had buys at about 3:00est, but I stayed
with my position, betting the daily will be the best indicator
this time of a start of a down-cycle.

If I will be playing 30 min or even 60 min plays, I will
have to ignore other posters and overall trend indicators,
because those indicators will often correctly pick a
near-term counter-trend. The pitfall in this method is
gapups and gapdowns will screwup any overnight playing of those
timeframes. I like the longer-term DMI on those time-frames
and may use that more in the future.

However, if I can identify correctly the overall trend,
I think I can have better success.

BTW I notice a 5-dip ripple on my short-term stochastics
which I have never seen before in back-testing for 1000
days. IMO it means (1) people can't make up their minds
or (2) the market is being propped up on this downtrend.