Replies to post #106876 on Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

I think the only potential concern for MNTA from these impressive numbers is whether SNY is concerned enough about m-enox capturing too large of a market that it has to launch an authorized generic.

Seems unlikely to me. I think the net for SNY would be much, much lower than under the current 2 product market. Again, I am assuming more price reductions under that arrangement, and others think that pricing would stay the same. I sure hope that nothing changes from current 2 products "forever."

The numbers for Q3 are similar to what I thought they would be starting Q4. Clearly, MNTA numbers will be "HUGH" after the reimbersement is paid off. And that will be sooner than even we hoped. Q4 guidance (if any) from MNTA will be very interesting.

[DewDiligence]

Re: SNY authorized generic

I think the only potential concern for MNTA from these impressive numbers is whether SNY is concerned enough about m-enox capturing too large of a market that it has to launch an authorized generic.

Not gonna happen, IMO. If SNY were planning to launch an authorized generic in the sole-generic scenario, they would have done so already. Moreover, SNY has implicitly stated in its own press release that an AG is not in the cards (#msg-53738652).

It seems patently clear that SNY and NVS have reached a tacit understanding to divide the highly profitable US Lovenox market into roughly equal shares, just as one would expect companies to behave in a “pure” duopoly.

[DewDiligence]

What [was] the...largest selling generic of all time?

It was probably tamoxifen, but I’m not sure. Due to an unusual patent settlement, Barr had nine years as the sole generic in the marketplace under an AG-distribution agreement with Zeneca.