Replies to post #106751 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

Is there any value of SVR in the T+VX222 trial (in G1 naive patients) below which you would start to question the chances of a 3 drug DAA (wo SOC) taking over 90% of the market? <20%? <10%?

I’d be interested in your own answer to the question you posed above (and in the answer of anyone else who cares to opine).

My current opinion - but very much just a gut reaction:

a) If the SVR rate for T+VX222 is less than 15% I'd decrease my estimate of the chance of all-DAA's becoming the norm.

b) If the SVR rate for t+VX222 is greater than about 50% I'd increase my estimate of the chance of all-DAA's becoming the norm.

But a more important metric for me is the relapse rate. Anything at 50% or more would be an indicator to me that low quantities aren't by themselves sufficient to allow the immune system to gain the upper hand. Thus IFN/Rib will have to remain in the mix.