Replies to post #104439 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

mlovenox valuation

Personally how I believe MNTA will trade ONLY with respect to generic lovenox is that $0 is built in for profits. Each earnings imo will be treated as a one time event and additive to some base valuation

i don't know how mnta will trade, but it doesn't make sense to assign nothing to future profits when assessing the PRESENT value of mlovenox. if branded lovenox sold 10B a year would mlovenox sill be worth the same today? of course not. what you have to do is use a forward earnings, just discounted for the probability those earnings will convert to a royalty model over time. so if you think TEVA has a 5% chance of getting approved this quarter, deduct this quarter's earnings by the proper amount and add that to the royalty model you use as a base. then add in the next quarter's earnings, discounted again the same way, etc. obviously as you go out the probability of TEVA approval increases (at least near to medium-term) so each subsequent quarter is less accretive to present value

[alertmeipp]

hmmmm....I disagree.

I think your analysis is more to rationalize the current pps than to project the should-be pps.