Biotech Values

[wallstarb]

Personally how I believe MNTA will trade ONLY with respect to generic lovenox is that $0 is built in for profits. Each earnings imo will be treated as a one time event and additive to some base valuation. For instance lets say a BASE valuation is $600m and lets just for argument sake and simple math say 50m fully dilluted shares so $12 is that "base"

Right now @ $15 only $150m is being valued into the drug - but as they earn $$$ that # increases as it drops into their coffers as profits. So I think it's erroneous to build upfront value into "potential" earnings as a PE suggests - but rather look at it after they book the #'s and not to assume you can expect anything going forward.

So if they generate $300m in NET CASH during the next 12 months and everything else (M118, partnerships, etc etc) remains the same then imo you could say the new "base" would be $600m +300m and the "value" of lovenox would be somewhat diminished lets say $150m --> $75m so you might get something like this

$600 + $300 + $75 or $975m which would be about $20 a share