Replies to post #104061 on Biotech Values

[ciotera]

I guess that's believable.
It leaves about 2m patients out there who are undiagnosed.

The question is, what % of that roughly 650k diagnosed has access to healthcare (it's one thing to be diagnosed, another to have coverage)?

And of those who do, what % is sitting in HCV treaters' offices vs. need to be referred from PCPs?

And of those, what % are eligible for IFN?

And of those, what % will be willing to take P-IFN+Riba+ T or B, which has worse tolerability than P-IFN+Riba alone, but offers substantially higher SVR, considering that the disease is essentially asymptomatic.

And then I can see a scenario where profit-maximizing payers would try to limit the use of T or B in patient populations where the benefit over P-IFN+Riba alone is the greatest.

I don't follow VRTX closely, but for the sake of their investors, I hope they've gone through this mental exercise.