Don't know where you are getting your estimates of "roughly half" from, but I won't argue them because I don't have anything better.
They are from the market research done by VRTX, which was discussed on the webcast last week. VRTX estimates that the US market has 300-350K diagnosed patients who have never been treated and 270-300K patients who failed at least one course of therapy.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”