Replies to post #103702 on Biotech Values

[exwannabe]

Re: "BMY-ZGEN post-mortem:"

Since NVS sold their shares at 9.75 I think any further discussion of "fair value" is moot.

(Though I do agree agree that the BMS milestone payments were obviously at risk. To borrow Wallstarb's term, they were "bio-bucks".)

[AlpineBV_Miller]

ZGEN/BMY a dirty deal done dirt cheap

It’s unlikely, IMO, that BMY would ever have had to pay ZGEN all of the latter or any of the former.

Your opinion would be wrong. Approvals in three markets for HBV/HCV are likely to have taken up 90% of the milestones according to what we've been told. "Easily achievable" sales levels -- we believe $1.5B worldwide -- would have taken up all the sales milestones.

This ignores the other outlicensed products, preclinical pipeline, cash-flow positive RecoThrom, IL-21, and the 50% of lambda profits in NA and 15-18% royalties overseas.

Zymo's Board laid down on this one. It is a terrible, terrible deal.

It's also a moot point because between Warburg and Novo, BMY has 66% of the needed votes. they'll pick up the remainder of what they need just from the arbitrage owners.

FWIW, if you strictly read Novo's release they are only receiving $8.48/share. Some argue what Novo really meant is they were booking DKR $1.1B net proceeds. That's not what the release says, though. http://ow.ly/2Bf4L

[DewDiligence]

BMY formally discontinued Interferon Lambda, according to @JMPawlotsky. This is worth noting only because of the debate on this board a couple of years ago with respect to the medical and commercial value of this program and whether BMY “stole” ZymoGenetics (#msg-54152162).