Replies to post #103409 on Biotech Values

[y3maxx]

MNTA...questions

Over what time frame is it NVS's advantage not to buy out MNTA or partner on M118?

At what share price will NVS pull the trigger and bid for MNTA?

Sales of M enox is a given.

I posted earlier that MNTA's CEO has been responsible for allowing its share price to diddle, however Dew explained NVS must give its permission as to allow any M enox sales update.

Dew also explained that neither SNY nor Teva could legally take out MNTA.

Hence my question, what is NVS up to?

tia

y3

[flatlander_60048]

Seems a little premature to be making this statement. The pricing announced by Sandos left considerable room to negotiate additional discounts.


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In hindsight, Sandoz's initial pricing kept Sanofi in the ballgame.
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If Lovenox becomes viewed as a commodity (isn't that what fully substitutable means) with only two suppliers then the pricing will gravitate to a price point where both suppliers remain " in the game". Hopefully each of those suppliers are smart enough not to gut the margins right out of the gate.

The night of Sullivan's ruling I said a short term MNTA pop would be met by another sell off. I still feel that this sell off will be followed by a long term run which will likely be Stoked by Sandoz quarterly sales information (Oct 21 and thereafter).

The average investor is exhibiting short term focus on the hidden reason for MNTA not skyrocketing. They fail to recognize that the market can undergo irrational periods. Large Cap stocks with excellent earnings, visibility, and dividends are trading at huge discounts to historical valuations. Given the current tone of the market, why isn't it understandable that the market may need to see the earnings materialize for MNTA before the valuation catches up.

MNTA is has demonstrated at least two instances where it's reverse engineering technology has received the FDA seal of approval (contaminated heparin and M-Enox). I'd be surprised if additional collaboration opportunities don't materialize for MNTA in the near future. Perhaps that is why they are hiring.

Good Luck
FL

[EyeamBill]

SNY Pricing

It should be noted that SNY did not only offer a wider discount to Healthtrust (HPG) for Lovenox. They also dropped their prices for some of their other products. So, HPG customers are saving over a wide array of SNY products. Sandoz would have to be very aggressive on pricing to combat that "scorched earth" policy.

Bill

[bxjwn9ru]

As far as the stock price, the only reasonable I can come up with is that sales aren't meeting the expectations of the street. I don't think Teva's approval is in play at this time.

How can you say that the TEVA approval uncertainty is not weighing on the price when it tanked after the SB analysts comments? The importance of this outcome cannot be overstated. If you need proof just look at the valuations posted by DewD based on TEVA approval/non-approval. At the moment the market is pricing in an imminent TEVA approval. IMO.