Replies to post #103371 on Biotech Values

[jbog]

Has anyone here ever posted any of the recent analyst datasets complete with their valuations.


tia

[zipjet]

That is very interesting DD.

The only item in that list that I took a stab at valuing is mCopaxone. I came up with $330M which considering that much of the calculation is a series of guesses is within spitting distance of your $250M.

:-)

ij

[Shengli]

Are you speaking of the hypothetical unrealized value today ?
Also is that a per year number ?
I would think as each of these potential events are realized the value would be much greater but i am not even doing napkin calculations so my ideas are not as concrete as yours.

[DewDiligence]

Valuation of MNTA’s Non-Lovenox Assets

Several posters on this board have posted extensively on how much MNTA’s
Lovenox program is worth under various scenarios, so I won’t repeat those
discussions here. Rather, I’ll give crude estimates for what I think MNTA’s
non-Lovenox assets are worth; any reader who agrees with my numbers
need only add in what he thinks the Lovenox program is worth to arrive
at a bottom-line valuation number. (I ascribe no separate value to MNTA’s
NOL’s because I consider the NOL’s to be part of MNTA’s Lovenox asset.)

 
                             Estimated   
 Asset                     Value ($ Mln)  
 50% of NVS-MNTA  
 Copaxone collaboration        *450 
  
 M118 (#msg-63912778)             0 
  
 M402                            50 
  
 Worldwide rights to MNTA’s  
  proprietary technology for  
  all applications other than  
  Lovenox/Copaxone/M118/M402   †525 
    
 Net cash (at end of 2Q11)     ‡310 
  
 ===========================  ===== 
 All non-Lovenox assets       1,335

*Raised from $250M in Sep 2010 model due to FDA rejection of Teva’s second Citizen Petition and FDA rejection of Teva’s low-volume Copaxone NDA.

†Lowered from $600M in Sep 2010 model due to FDA’s slowness in publishing FoB guidelines.

‡Sum of $260M at 3/31/11 (#msg-62862460) and estimated increase of $50M during 2Q11.

JMHO, FWIW