Replies to post #103022 on Biotech Values

[jbog]

Dewophile,

Momenta had the real asset, which was the ability to design this product.

We are all guessing at the numbers at this point because Momenta has not answered all the questions that we needed to know, so in many ways we'll just have to wait.

I've been trying to decide why Momenta's stock has cratered so bad, and the only answer I can come up with is that the final numbers will be very close to my estimates. While my numbers aren't what I was hoping for, they will indeed put a nice base under Momenta so they can go forward.

Good Luck

[DewDiligence]

People are ascribing too much significance to the $40M figure in NVS’ litigation brief, IMO. In the first place, this number was a lower bound rather than an actual 6-week sales projection. From NVS’ 8/6/10 pleadings (#msg-53731775) with emphasis added:

Sandoz is expecting sales in the range of over $40 million in the next six weeks alone, sales which would be lost if the court were to enjoin it.

Moreover, the purpose of NVS’ mentioning the $40M figure in the litigation brief was merely to counter SNY’s argument of irreparable harm. It’s reasonable to surmise that, for competitive reasons, NVS would want to reveal as little as possible to SNY about its Lovenox commercialization activities. Thus, the $40M number was presumably a lowball estimate that NVS thought was the minimum number they could use to make NVS’ counter-argument vis-à-vis irreparable harm credible to the judge.