Replies to post #101676 on Biotech Values

[rkrw]

I think the uncertainty over Teva is the number one factor holding the stock back. Lawsuit number two. Skepticism over Copaxone factors in as well.

If Teva does get approved, I wouldn't look for them to discount all that much beyond Sandoz.

[zipjet]

Hi Rocky,

1) Sales uncertainty - current approvals.

IF I understood Shea correctly, Sandoz is already filling 35-40% of the market. "...achieved that penetration of the market fairly quickly ..." From my notes.

Most of us "kool-aid" drinkers believe sales will be 30-50 %, with rational arguments

Make mine grape. :-)

2) Sales uncertainty - future approvals. ... the market opportunity goes from $2.7B to $1.2B or less. And NVS/MNTA to 20-30% from 50%.

My guess is that the market goes to $1.8B from $2.8B (latest statement from MNTA for 2010 market). I give 25% to MNTA/Sandoz, 25% to TEVA and the other 50% to SNY including their AG. Just guessing but interesting that you bracket my 25% figure. A drop to $1.2 would be a big cut. Your guess is as good as mine.* :-)


ij

* But not as good as rkrw in my book. :-) (Edit after reading rkrw.)