Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

MNTA price action - reasons - jmo

1) Sales uncertainty - current approvals. Most of us "kool-aid" drinkers believe sales will be 30-50 %, with rational arguments, but others could easily take a "show me" attitude. The "small" discount from Sandoz surely does raise the question how price sensitive the market is. In addition, S-A seems to be aggressive in the market to keep business. Until there is published info on sales info, the market will doubt our belief that 50% is possible. From the script numbers out so far, the market is right - but public numbers won't cover hospitals where most of the sales are.

2) Sales uncertainty - future approvals. With a TEVA approval, almost everything changes. Not only do the MNTA payments from NVS change to a royalty, but the possibility is that the market opportunity goes from $2.7B to $1.2B or less. And NVS/MNTA to 20-30% from 50%. The fact is that noone knows how a 3 or 4 party market would shake out.

3) Legal uncertainty. We surely don't think S-A has a chance, but the market views it as an additional issue to be resolved.

JMO