re;"We know AMD has a rather large inventory of parts that they can sell while they ramp Hammer so they can afford to move more wafer starts to Hammer than they would otherwise have to."
I don't know if they have a big inventory, but if they do, it's stuff that has an ASP of ~50 now and is dropping. They can throw wafer starts at Hammer, but I do not believe they sell any real volume before Q2 since it is scheduled to be launched in Q1, which has meant late Q1 or even early Q2. And we have seen AMDs last two launches where parts don't show up in the channel for another couple of months.
re:So, the 2400+ goes for $199 I'd say that a 3400+ would go for around $299 which is ok by me, that should bring AMD back into the black."
The 2400+ is at $199 today (pricewatch) with very few parts being chased. As volume ramps this and the 2600 and 2800 will need to drop. They can sell thousands at $200 and more, but not millions in an unconstrained market. Same is true for hammer... if they sell thousands they will get $299 maybe more, but if they try to sell 1Mu they need to drop below $200, and to sell 2 or 3Mu in a quarter they need to drop below 150. AMD need to sell 6MU/quater at and ASP over $90 to stop the bleeding and build some reserves. If they sell 4Mu of the old stuff at a $50ASP that means they need to sell 2Mu of the new stuff (Hammer, 2600/2800+ at an ASP of over $180. Right now with everything up to the 2200+ being sold, their ASP is around $50 and they can't seem to sell what they have... AMD has a very tough road.
I know that many people like to root for the underdog, but in the case of AMD vs Intel, it appears that Intel has gotten things running well with some room for error while AMD needs to hit everything exactly right to even have a chance to survive… and they would need some additional help from a quick recovery in the global demand for PCs.
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