Replies to post #1555 on Intel Corp (INTC)

[spokeshave]

Nitt: Re: "...but in the case of AMD vs Intel, it appears that Intel has gotten things running well with some room for error while AMD needs to hit everything exactly right to even have a chance to survive… and they would need some additional help from a quick recovery in the global demand for PCs."

First off, I agree that AMD needs to hit everything exactly right to have a chance. Assuming that is the case (really a rhetorical assumption becasue if they don't, they are gone IMO) what is going to happen in 12 to 18 months? I have watched several of the "experts" here posting about how the problems with low-k and SOI may be insurmountable. Some have even gone so far as to say that Hammer is not manufacturable. I think we can all stipulate that there are problems to be worked out.

However, having said that, I go back to a point I made in an earlier post. Again, assuming AMD can in fact bring Hammer along on 0.13u and SOI, then later next year, when the shrink to 0.09u takes place, AMD will already have the kinks worked out of low-k and SOI. Intel, on the other hand, will be trying to go to 0.09u, low-k and strained silicon, all in one fell swoop. Assuming the "experts" are correct, and there are dire difficulties with this type of change, I maintain that Intel will have some rough sailing ahead and at least has the potential to stumble.

[bababouie]

Nitt, that's a valid arguments. Let's take Intel's cpus for example. Given the distribution from 1.8Ghz to 2.8Ghz how would you allocate the percentage sold for each speed grade ( they have to total to 100% ). The other consideration is that AMD's ASPS are suppressed because they don't own the high-end anymore. Having the performance leadership allows all the manufacturer to pull up the prices of all their chips. For example, the lower-volume Athlon MPs still fetch well over $100 but there are not enough of those to make a dent. For your information the $199 price listed on Pwatch for the 2400+ is the lowest one. There's one for $238 also. I think that AMD will price the clawhammer 3400+ at 25% off the 3Ghz P4 which should price the 3400+ at around $350, then subtract some $50 for the OEMS and they'll get around $300. By then they'll have the 2800+ and 3000+ bartons ( hopefully ) which can fetch anywhere from $150 to $250 and they should be able to pull up their ASPS. They just have to execute like you say. If they can sell 5 million TBreds @ $50-$75 and 1 million Bartons and Hammers at ~$150, they will do ok.

C