Replies to post #100930 on Biotech Values

[DFRAI]

OT - Zipjet and Dew

The following table summarizes the primary components of our research and development expenditures for our principal commercial and development programs for the six months ended June 30, 2010 and 2009, and shows the total external costs incurred by us for each of our major commercial and development projects. The table excludes costs incurred by our collaboration partner on such major commercial and development projects. We do not maintain or evaluate, and therefore do not allocate, internal research and development costs on a project-by-project basis. Consequently, we do not analyze internal research and development costs by project in managing our research and development activities.


Research and Development Expense (in thousands)


Commercial and Development Programs (Status)



Project Inception to June 30, 2010

45,251

It seems that Lovenox costs amount to 45,251 as per 10Q filed - could this be correct?

This number would imply at minimum a 75 million annualized sales to MNTA or aprox 1.5 dollars in earnings times 10 pe = 15 share price attributable to Lovenox - what do you think

[wallstarb]

I dont think you can put a PE on the earnings because its unliklely to be a good business for more then a year or 2 at most. generics as they come on will eat away - so IMO those earnings will not be given any more then a low single digit multiple - maybe 2x or 3x - think of them almost like you'd treat a one time gain - then take what will be left over in 4 or 5 years - according to rkrw $30m or so is expected in 2 year. I think if you are trying to figure out a realistic target based on that you could do 2x the $300m then do a 10x on the $30m backend.

Change the numbers around as you see fit - I am just pointing out that using a multiple for the essentially one time sales they will have (maybe 2x if it takes 18 - 24 months for Teva) would be IMO erroneous.

So you might get something like $300m x 2 + 30m x 10 and get $900m conservative for Lovenox then you would want to add in some for M118 and Copaxone.

[alertmeipp]

>>MNTA lovenox costs of 143 million

the payment is capped at 50% of the cash flow. So if 3 quarters of cash flow can pay off 143millions. Annualized is actually closed to 380millions.

Today's MNTA's market cap is 770M. If you do 10x P/E on 380millions, it's 86 pps.