You missed the point of dfrai’s post. dfrai was not putting a valuation multiple on MNTA’s Lovenox sales, but rather was trying to estimate the sales level MNTA expects based on MNTA’s guidance for the time required to repay the amount owed to NVS.
That's not exactly what I said. What I meant was IF Teva is approved I don't think it's unreasonable to expect around $300M in sales or $30M/year in royalties as the market gets sliced a few ways. This is just an estimate. We don't know if Teva will be approved soon, within two years, or not.
so let's say we have 3 generics and the pie shrinks to 1.5 billions (~40% drop!)
500million sales -> royalty of 10% = 50millions = $1.2 per shares! Not bad for a $17 biotech, right?
That's like the doomsday scenario.
Note we were just debating how much a copy of Lovenox worth.
We left out M118 and Copaxone altogether. We can value Capaxone as a phase 3 drug with a billion revenue potential - that alone worth a good amount. M118 - we should see a partnership with some nice upfront soon.
On top of that, MNTA has a platform that would turn to be gold mine for a bigger cash-rich company (pretty much all big pharmas are).
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