Replies to post #100873 on Biotech Values

[wallstarb]

$12 - $16 has been the "range" for months - if $16 as a floor holds I don't think you have much to worry about.

I was just checking in - what happened?

[10nisman]

<< Given mnta was trading at about $12 before approval and even if Teva is approved they should earn $25-30M/year (wild guess on my part) in royalties, you'd think the landing spot would be something higher than $12. >>

Royalties of $25-30M/yr?? Wild guess for sure...

Let's just say SNY, TEVA and Sandoz split the market equally (33% of $2.7 billion). MNTA would net annual royalties of approximately $71 million using a 10% net royalty and 20% cost of sales (i.e, 8% of Sandoz's Lovenox sales). If you assume the market shrinks (35%) as a result of lower prices to $2.0 billion from $2.7 billion, MNTA would still net annual royalties of approximately $53 million. Splitting the difference MNTA earns $60 million in annual royalties.

If you apply a 10-15x multiple on annual royalties you arrive at $600-900 million or $12-18 per share. MNTA has a NOL of $250 million tax effected is worth $2 per share and over $1/share of cash on its balance sheet. M356, M118 and any further developments worth another $6 per share.

Adding the above amounts and you arrive at a conservative fully discounted MNTA share price between $21-27 per share or a 20+% discount to the current share price.

10nis