Replies to post #100731 on Biotech Values

[wallstarb]

SPX was about 1220 going into MAY it bottom in the first few days of JULY at 1020 area - almost a 20% loss. We have retraced about 1/2 the loss to 1120, but if you are looking at it as a 10% rally off the JULY low as SUMMER RALLY I think you're mistaken - since we're down 10% for the summer. But the summer isn't over maybe you'll be right - if we get to 1250 by Sept I'll agree with you. But I did mention that I expected a decent bounce in JULY into the first week or so of August - then a continuation of the sell off in SEPT/OCT

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=52034542

Back in mid April I posted we got a major SELL signal on the S&P (it was around 1200 at the time) - I expected if we followed a pattern similar to 2003/2004 that we would get 1020 - 1040 area.

We had a closign low on the SPX of 1022 and we tested 1000 area overnight in the futures last week.

I wouldnt be suprised to see some sort of a decent % boucne over the next few weeks.

Here's a link to the post from April 18th

http://www.financialchat.com/blogs/gamma-trade-idea

[Biowatch]

JAZZ -- safe for fibromyalgia, but risky.

The Food and Drug Administration posted its review online, saying Jazz's drug sodium oxybate effectively treated pain from fibromyalgia in two company-run studies. However, regulators have concerns about the misuse and abuse of the drug, which has been used as an illegal stimulant and a date rape drug.

Fibromyalgia is characterized by widespread muscle pain and other symptoms including fatigue, headache and depression.

...Between 2002 and 2009, the FDA identified just five cases of misuse or abuse of the drug.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/FDA-eyes-Jazz-Pharmaceuticals-apf-1748734768.html?x=0&.v=3

This has to be a tough call for the FDA. It's approved for 150,000 narcolepsy patients, but opening up the market for several million fibromyalgia patients increases the potential for abuse.

http://www.fda.gov/AdvisoryCommittees/Calendar/ucm217265.htm

Agenda

The committees will discuss new drug application (NDA) 22-531, sodium oxybate, 375 milligrams per milliliter (mg/ml) oral solution, sponsored by Jazz Pharmaceuticals, with a proposed indication for the treatment of fibromyalgia for patients 18 years of age and older. The safety and efficacy findings for sodium oxybate in the fibromyalgia population and the proposed Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for this product will be discussed.

[wallstarb]

The market is making lower lows and lower highs - next few weeks could be rough and at best I think a retest of the JULY lows - with some decent potential for breaking to new lows < 1000 on the S&P

Volatility should pick up for the next month or so, should be some fun times - we have some stocks on our watch list to start long positions at some point in the next 6 - 8 weeks.