SPX was about 1220 going into MAY it bottom in the first few days of JULY at 1020 area - almost a 20% loss. We have retraced about 1/2 the loss to 1120, but if you are looking at it as a 10% rally off the JULY low as SUMMER RALLY I think you're mistaken - since we're down 10% for the summer. But the summer isn't over maybe you'll be right - if we get to 1250 by Sept I'll agree with you. But I did mention that I expected a decent bounce in JULY into the first week or so of August - then a continuation of the sell off in SEPT/OCT
Back in mid April I posted we got a major SELL signal on the S&P (it was around 1200 at the time) - I expected if we followed a pattern similar to 2003/2004 that we would get 1020 - 1040 area.
We had a closign low on the SPX of 1022 and we tested 1000 area overnight in the futures last week.
I wouldnt be suprised to see some sort of a decent % boucne over the next few weeks.