Replies to post #100311 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Has VRTX itself posted SVR12 data from any of its telaprevir trials where we can compare the SVR12 numbers to the SVR24 numbers?

Yes—see #msg-52838019.

[iwfal]

should I infer that you believe that SVR12 may be a good proxy for SVR24 as well where a combo of HCV DAAs are involved (with or without ifn or ifn+rib)?

Yes, I was wrong in assuming the relapse viral kinetics were different for the two treatment regimens that are well understood**. And Dew, with his data on Telaprevir, added a third data point indicating that relapse kinetics are similar across widely different regiments. Obviously that is no guarantee that yet another treatment regimen will have the same kinetics - but consistency across three very different regimens seems reasonably powerful.

** My mistake was assuming that SVR24 was the standard metric for ifn+rib because shorter timeframes didn't work. But that appears not to be the case in general (although there may be some patient population subset for which it is known that the relapse kinetics are different.)