Bear with me on this as i don't know what i am talking about:) BUT about a year ago i saw, one time only, a mathematician/economist , with charts, yada yada , on Bloomberg TV Europe WHO struck me as knowing what he was talking about.
He went through all sorts of data and demonstrating that history tells us a new force in the market place, such as Techonology, goes thru a step ladder increase in its % of GDP, but as it hits 50% it has topped out, or be very close to it.
He then states that when this happens that area, which be technology, had now acheived 50% of GDP which meant, by historical pattern will then start slowly to revert to P/E evaluations no higher then 15-1, as its future growth will be realized to be not of note.
He stated that this would be the overall future on Nasdaq , and that for one to find exceptions in the tech sector one need focus searching for "niche" techs that do have growth acceleration--of which he stated their would not be many.
By his analysis, the tech sector heyday is behind it forever.
The when it returns to 5000 becomes highly conjectural.
Zeev has given his Nikkei example, and we have our example that it took 25years( 1929-1954) for DOW to recover and finally reach the highs it had hit in 1929.
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