Replies to post #99490 on Biotech Values

[Mpower]

I think the best indicator of how the stock will perform is the price action of Intermune in March. Note that the move from 14 --> 47 was incremental and steady through a period of 3 weeks. I expect good things next week, this is a GIFT, IMHO.

[medchal]

MNTA:  I don't make price predictions.  I only look to experience for a general feel of what might very well happen.  None of us knows what will actually transpire.

Having said that, MNTA below $16 would be, certainly, no worse than par for the course for companies similarly situated.  Seeing a price above the immediate post approval spike ($25.XX, in this case) usually takes a very long time.  Analysts always ratchet up their price targets, but that seldom ratchets up the share price.  And yes, there are exceptions--but they are exceptions, not the norm.

In addition, investors who have committed their emotions to the stock in question always begin speaking of new paradigms and how it will be different this time.  It seldom is.  Today's trading is at least a strong suggestion that it won't be this time, either.  The months immediately after approval are the time to be most cautious about the immediate future.

Just a cautionary note for those not familiar with the pattern.  I wouldn't begin to tell someone any precise level at which I would consider the price attractive.