Replies to post #32677 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

Chainik, don't put down the two short July rallies, on the first, I was fully loaded and raised a lot of cash on the end of 7/5, in those today, I made more than what I lost (only in the losing positions) in the last two weeks. The July 23 bottom was pretty good as well, except that I waited longer to get high in cash (8/22 if memory serves). Thus those interim rallies can be quite useful.

Zeev

[Zeev Hed]

Chainik, maybe it is time to review the Dow list, on May 11th this year I gave targets that I expected would be exceeded on the down side before the end of the year. By late July (see #msg-434114), all but 7 of the venerable 30 Dow stocks exceeded those targets, the only survivors were AXP, BA, EK, HON, IBM, IP and MSFT. Since then, three additional venerable fell below those targets. I am listing here the seven with the target decline in ( ), the price on May 11, the low since then [ ] and the current price:

AXP (-19); $41.5; [$26.92]; $28.53
BA (-12); $44 ; [$31.95]; $32.01 HIT
EK (-10) $35 ; [$26.30]; $26.86
HON (-10) $38 ; [$19.93]; $20.04 HIT
IBM (-25) $80 ; [$55.77]; $56.60
IP (-8) $43 ; [$31.75]; $33.76 HIT
MSFT(-10) $50 ; [$41.41]: $43.77

Of the four survivors, AXP's forecast was the worst, it got only to within $4.5 of the target. EK and MSFT got within less than $1.50 and IBM within less than a buck, and we have almost three more months to go.

Since I am discussing the venerable Dow stocks, I might as well update the status of the most recent Dow long gambit (#msg-508921) from 9/23 and the summary of the stops in #msg-511231:

IBM at $61.08, stopped at $60 loss of 1.8%. Reentered (6% more shares) at $56.5 on 10/4/02. S.L. $53.5. Current price $56.60.
AA at $19.35 (SL $17.55), sell above $25. Current price: $19.11
EK at $26.80 (SL $24.90), sell above $31. Current price: $26.86
MMM at $116 (SL $108.25), sell at $138. Current price: $114.50
XOM at $32.50 (SL $29.90), sell above $40. Current price:$33.06
MSFTat $44.75 (SL $41.20), sell above $51. Current price: $43.77

So far the timing of that gambit was off, since all stocks are no below the entry (except XOM by an iota).

Some may want to add BA entry at $32.35, which I have added to the core last week (now at $32.01).

If these do just half as well on the average as the 7/23 gambit did (see #msg-434114 for the actual entries and following sell message on 8/22 a month after opening the gambit), we should be happy, but I fully expect at least an average of 20% return on that gambit.

Zeev