Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

Time to review the weekly Dow Hit list.
A little while ago (May, 11th -2002), in response to Mish's question on the Dow possible low (I have a
target low for the year of 7500 to 8000), reporting that 8000 was indeed breached. At the time I gave a
list (#reply-17455722) of the max expected hits for each Dow stock, I probably should have listed the
then current prices, so I am reproducing this list with the then current prices, (the Dow was just around
10,000 then May 11th) as well as the target max hits (in parenthesis), I have now added the low (in
square brackets) since then and the current price. During the week (at the end of trading on 7/23) when asked which Dow stocks I would suggest for the coming ramp, I suggested six stocks, 3M, XOM, MSFT, IBM, JNJ and MRK. To check the Turnips accuracy, I will record weekly here the high since that recommendation as well as the "theoretical purchase price" (the opening price on 7/24):

AA (- 11) $35, [$22.75], $25.60; Hit
AXP (- 19) $41.50, [$26.92], $30.17;
T (- 4) $14, [$8.20], $9.14; Hit;
BA (-12) $44, [$37.20], $42.00;
CAT (- 7) $53, [$39.05], $43.55 Hit;
C (-12) $44 [$24.48], $30.74;Hit
KO (-12) $57, [$43.60], $47.45; Hit
DIS (- 4) $23 [$14.90], $16.00; Hit;
DD (-6) $46, [$36.30], $41.88 ; Hit
EK (-10) $35, [$26.30], $28.60;
XOM (-5) $39, [$29.75], $35.09; Hit REC at $30.90 High $35.20.
GE (-7) $31, [$23.02], $27.80;Hit
GM (-15) $67, [$40.50], $43.05;Hit
HPQ (-8) $20,[$10.75], $11.66;Hit
HON (-10) $38, [$30.12], $30.21;
HD (-7) $46, [$27.25], $30.65; Hit;
IBM (-25) $80, [$65.76], $76.40; REC $66 High $70.
IP (-8) $43, [35.42], $38.65;
INTC (-5) $27, [$16.26], 17.81; Hit;
JNJ (-6) $62, [$41.40], $49.61;Hit; REC $44.16 High $49.95
MCD (-4) $30, [$21.75], $24.17;Hit
MRK (-12) $56, [$38.50], $46.00; Hit REC $39.10 High $46.00
MSFT(-10) $50, [$41.41], $45.35; REC $41.75 HIGH $46.36
MMM (-16) $126.90, [$108.20], $120.85;Hit REC $111.77 High $121.99
JPM (-10) $35.00, [$18.22], $22.25; Hit
MO (-3) $55, [$40.30], $46.30: Hit;
PG (-10) $93, [$74.08] $84.20; Hit
SBC (-6) $31, [$22.20], $26.25;Hit
UTX (-10) $69, [$58.61], $65.71;Hit
WMT (-10) $54, [$43.72], $48.18;Hit.

Until last week, 14 of these have hit, T, CAT, DIS, GM, HD, INTC, JNJ, MO, MRK, KO, DD, XOM, MCD and PG, and this week 8 more hit,C, GE, HPQ, MMM, JPM, SBC, UTX, WMT bringing the total to 22 out of 30. We are under at 8000 (and reached very close to the 7500 level) despite the fact that 8 have not reached those levels simply because many have gone much further than in that target list. And we are only at mid year and only 10 weeks from the start. I think that most of the lows have been reached for this list of 30.

Zeev