Dew,
i can't say the number (no under/over). The only thing i can say is that a restart is anticipated and people are worried about retaining personnel in the interim. There has been some personnel whacking which was unwanted but viewed as unavoidable under the circumstances.
My own feeling is that the Obama is doing a Richard Nixon, i.e. placate the base and then run as fast as possible back toward the middle just before the election. I think the official end to the moratorium will end on or before the announced date; however, there will be some sort of fuzzy statements made about drilling will restart as soon as new regulations are issued. That won't matter a bit because the damage will have been long done. Enough time will have elapsed so that whatever excess in floating rigs exists now will be eliminated by the time new regulations and certifications are established (i.e. planning of new drilling programs outside US waters will be completed and the excess will disappear into those projects).
The far left Obama-Pelosi constituency has a complete disconnect between their automobiles and oil production. I have several friends in this camp and they blithely state that they are opposed to offshore drilling and are fully supportive of this moratorium. When I try to explain the economics and technical details of why drilling can't just be turned on whenever it is convenient for them the eyes glaze over and they go back to their utopian dreamworld which somehow involves magically produced windmills powering their cars. The highest level math most of these people have ever done is adding up their Scrabble scores.
Even some of the liberals i work with (which is in the O&G biz) think it is Obama's intent to destroy US offshore drilling. When the dems start scaring liberals in Cambridge MA, then i'd say it's a good sign that they've over-reached.
regards
Charlie
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