Replies to post #1253 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[DewDiligence]

Factoid: The total volume of global imports and exports fell 21% between Apr 2008 and May 2009, the largest decline since the 1930s. By Jun 2010, trade was back to within 2% of its peak. (Source: WSJ)

[DewDiligence]

IMF Cuts 2011 Global Growth Prospects Slightly

[I don’t take these numbers too seriously, but here they are, FWIW.]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703735804575535703112209576.html

›OCTOBER 7, 2010
By IAN TALLEY

WASHINGTON—Global growth will slow more than expected in 2011 as European public-debt problems continue to undermine the recovery in industrialized nations, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday.

Emerging markets such as China and India are forecast to remain growth champions [no kidding], but advanced economies are cutting budgets amid the sovereign-debt crisis.

All told, the IMF predicted the world economy will expand 4.8% in 2010 and 4.2% in 2011. [The 2011 forecast of 4.2% is down from the IMF’s prior forecast of 4.3% made in Jul 2010, while the 2010 forecast of 4.8% is up from the IMF’s prior forecast of 4.6%: #msg-52158505.]

Expansion prospects for the U.S. took the IMF's largest downgrade, falling to 2.3% from an earlier estimate of 2.9%. [The prior IMF forecast was made in Jul 2010: #msg-52158505.]

China's growth is expected to fall slightly in 2011, to a brisk 9.6%, from 10.5% this year.

Etc.‹